Thursday, 9 August 2012

Crescent Observation Predictions For Shawwal 1433 AH (2012 AD)

Long time, no see! I have just returned from the moon with some great news. Read on.

Another Eid al-Fitr is around the corner and so is lunar confusion. But need one confuse things given the very clear scientific data below? Beware: no amount of science can cover the flaws of human observation, cloudy weather or extreme geographical locations.

I have provided the crescent visibility curves and data for Jeddah (Saudi Arabia), Peshawar (Pakistan) which seems to blindly follow the distant Saudi horizon to falsely report crescent sightings, Karachi, then Lahore and finally those of London. You can easily see from the coloured legend (bottom right hand side) if your country falls within one of the visibility curves on a given date.
Shawwal 1433 AH crescent at sunset on 19 August, 2012 (bright curve shows DAY)

Finally, I have provided realistic representations of where the sun and the moon will be on 17, 18 and the 19 August, 2012 (Shawwal, 1433 Hijrah). The horizontal line, with compass degrees marked on it, represents the horizon.

The lunar calendar will always remain a necessity for determining occasions such as Ramadan, Hajj (pilgrimage at Makkah) and the two Eid festivals. At this time, we need not dive into an oily kingdom’s preference for unsettled crescent observation criteria. The onus of responsibility clearly falls on those who falsely report crescent sightings or support outright liars. This institutional wrong means that Muslims could end up starting the holy month of Ramadan (fasting) and celebrating Eid on the wrong dates.

The idea behind writing about lunar astronomy is to help one look with precision at the sky. Astronomy must be studied by each Muslim, as was done during the zenith of Muslim rule, to appreciate the inner workings of God's System. Observation matters need not be left to the experts; even novices can enjoy watching the sky in order to fulfil God’s Will and the sunnah (practices of Prophet Muhammad, peace on him).

A simultaneous global sighting of the crescent is an astronomical impossibility due to the moon’s eccentric rotation and orbital behaviour. Hence, celebrating Eid on a single day across a huge land mass (USA, China, India) is not a religious requirement but rather a new age idea propounded by the religious globalists. It has now become a fitna (trial, tribulation), frequently leading to disagreements and discord; please ignore this effort designed to divide Muslims further on non-issues.

A few important points need to be borne in mind this time:
  1. The birth of the new moon (conjunction) will take place on 17 August 2012 at 15:54 UTC (20:54 Pakistan Standard Time).
  2. Moonset will occur 00:27 minutes before sunset.
  3. The Shawwal crescent will be born 02:35 hours after sunset (at 15:54 UTC). Hence, it will be invisible on some parts of the globe until maybe the next evening (18 August).
  4. A 'fat' crescent will be clearly seen on the evening of 19 August. Therefore, in Pakistan Eid al-Fitr will fall on Monday, 20 August 2012—unless the Riyals will it otherwise.
I thank Allah and remain indebted to my astronomer friends whose accurate predictive software programmes and research have lit up my path of lunar astronomy.

I welcome your questions and comments on this important subject, and hope that you will attempt to not only understand what I have provided here but also help others understand matters for their own good.

Once you wish to be guided by taking a few essential steps in the direction, Allah's Promise will come true: you will be protected and guided.

They will ask thee about the new moons. Say: "They indicate the periods for [various doings of] mankind, including the pilgrimage." (Qur’an 2:189)

Have a lovely Eid al-Fitr!


Jeddah, SAUDI ARABIA (Saturday 18 August, 2012)
Sunset:  18:51 LT
Moonset: 19:13 LT
Moon Age:   +23H 57M
Moon Lag Time: +00H 22M
Moon Altitude: +05°:04':23"
Moon Azimuth: +271°:59':17"
Distance: 378,126.87 Km
Crescent Visibility: Visible with optical aid only (hence, Eid on 19 August)
Peshawar, PAKISTAN (Saturday 18 August 2012)
Sunset: 19:01 LT
Moonset: 19:08 LT
Moon Age: +22H 06M
Moon Lag Time: +00H 08M
Moon Altitude: 00°:58':11"
Moon Azimuth: +274°:15':58"
Distance: 378,388.95 Km
Crescent Visibility: Not visible even with optical aid (but then who knows!)
Karachi, Pakistan (18 August, 2012)
Sunset: 19:03 LT
Moonset: 19:19 LT
Moon Age: +22H 09M
Moon Lag Time: +00H 16M
Moon Altitude: +03°:44':30"
Moon Azimuth: +272°:45':21"
Distance: 378,383.59 Km
Crescent Visibility: The Crescent Visibility is: Not Visible Even With Optical Aid.
Lahore, PAKISTAN (Friday 17 August 2012)
Sunset:  18:46 LT
Moonset: 18:19 LT
Moon Age:  -02H 08M
Moon Lag Time: -00H 27M
Moon Altitude: -05°:55':22"
Moon Azimuth: +284°:11':07"
Distance: 382,142.78 Km
Crescent Visibility: Not visible even with optical aid (because the moon sets before the sun, and the conjunction occurs after sunset).

Lahore, PAKISTAN (Saturday 18 August, 2012)
Sunset: 18:45 LT             
Moonset: 18:55 LT
Moon Age: +21H 51M
Moon Lag Time: +00H 10M
Moon Altitude: +01°:40':25"
Moon Azimuth: +273°:49':20"
Distance: 378,426.83 Km
Crescent Visibility: Not Visible Even With Optical Aid.

Lahore, PAKISTAN (Sunday 19 August, 2012)
Sunset: 18:44 LT
Moonset: 19:31 LT
Moon Age: +45H 49M
Moon Lag Time: +00H 47M
Moon Altitude: +09°:20':35"
Moon Azimuth: +263°:10':20"
Distance: 375,307.79 Km
Crescent Visibility: Easily visible by naked eye.

London, United kingdom (Sunday 19 August, 2012)
Sunset: 20:16 LT
Moonset: 20:29 LT
Moon Age:  +51H 21M
Moon Lag Time: +00H 14M
Moon Altitude: +02°:00':56"
Moon Azimuth: +264°:11':57"
Distance: 374,685.52 Km
Crescent Visibility: Visible with optical aid (could be seen by naked eye).
©Tahir Gul Hasan, 2012


Anonymous said...

18th aug, lag time in peshawar is 8 mins, yet the moon will apparently be visible, while lag time in lhr on the same date is 2 mins greater but no sightings will be made. reason? in other words, why does peshawar sight the moon (on their eid-eve) yet the country ignores that sighting and waits for the next day?

TGH said...

Anonymous, thanks for asking. Lag time of such small order is insufficient for sighting the crescent because there is LESS darkness (zero chance of visibility) in the western horizon.
The crescent's age and distance and other factors also influence visibility!

" The visibility does not depend on age, but on the angular separation of moon and sun. A 13 hours age moon generally does not have enough angular separation for it to be visible. Also it takes about 20 to 25 minutes for the sun to go below horizon such that the background light of sun's glare diminishes to an extent that a crescent can be seen. However, a very thin crescent can not be seen until after 38 minutes past sunset." (Dr Khalid Shaukat).

Anonymous said...

Understood. Would u like to shed some light on how appropriate it is for one nation to sight the new moon on diff days and hence celebrate eid one day after the next? Y is it that peshawar's moon sighting is disregarded by the other cities?

Plus, it would be interesting to hear ur thoughts on the recent discovery of another type of human specie in kenya.perhaps u could link it to islam's perspective on evolution

TGH said...

Understood. Would u like to shed some light on how appropriate it is for one nation to sight the new moon on diff days and hence celebrate eid one day after the next? Y is it that peshawar's moon sighting is disregarded by the other cities?

Plus, it would be interesting to hear ur thoughts on the recent discovery of another type of human specie in kenya.perhaps u could link it to islam's perspective on evolution
TGHAugust 13, 2012 3:09 PM

A difference of upto two days is possible (due to various differences) but 3 or 4 days is ridiculous!
Then we have the International Date Line to consider. You see all these Lat/Long, equator, IDL things were created by the 'gora' and we can't go around these issues unless we gather experts of all fields to sort out these very Muslim matters.
We may divide Pak territory into two zones: nothern and southern. This is a huge country and people who live in the south may celebrate Eid on a different day than others if they've REALLY seen the crescent . Generally, those in the south (and East) will see the crescent EARLIER than those up North (and West)!
We do get plenty of holidays on Eid, and then we have the 2nd and 3rd days of Eids available! There's all the time to celebrate, and this is NOT Christmas for which we need to follow the solar global calender.
If you read my blog carefully, I have mentioned RIYALS and the bias they cause up 'North'. When our Umras and Hajjs are government-sponsored, what do you expect on Eid? Unity? The mosques have become centres of discord, not of harmony.
The question of simultaneous-day Eid is a non-issue in Islam. It has nothing to do with unity. When we can't even decide about the angle of the sun for sunrise/sunset, what do you expect for the poor crescent?
Witnesses often lie as far as sightings are concerned as they remain under strange pressures.
A few years ago, even our Rooyat-e-Hilal made a mistake because an unreliable 'witness' (from a remote location) was considered acceptable! Does anybody check the age, eyesight or astronomical knowledge of a witnesses?
The same goes for our Saudi 'friends' whose impossible observations are considered JOKES in astronomical circles. Honest!
The Prophet never worried about the Meccan crescent while he lived in Medina!
As for the 'ANOTHER' species, scientists lie all the time and their skulls are filled with Godless knowledge and doubts about creation. It's the Creationists Vs the Evolutionists. Islam doesn't accept Darwinian evolution. Darwin has been proven wrong and most of archaeology attempts to cover truths and makes us believe in 'scientific' untruths. For what? For awards and medals and their fancy degrees.

Anonymous said...

Totally agree to you brother!

Satan will keep making efforts to put doubts in our thoughts ..but when we know that Allah's words are absolute..we dont need these dork scientist to prove anything..

Abaan Pvz said...

Another Great blog my dear brother. True that most of us follow the scientists. We must not do that. Acquiring knowledge about Astronomy is a must now. No doubts... GOD knows better than anybody... No one can write a manual of any product, better than the manufacturer.

Thanks for the Blog Brother.

TGH said...

Thanks for dropping by, Abaan. I've asked some newspapers to re-print this, let's see what they do with it. You may try doing the same at your end or tell friends about it.

Niazi said...

A very nice research and a very good effort to resolve the problem of Muslim ummah regarding moon sighting. I wish there could be some way by which our government can also benefit from this . May Allah bless you

TGH said...

Thanks for dropping by to check what's going on in the sky, Niazi.
If the gore-mint were that efficient, wouldn't we all be living in heaven?
It's the individuals who make a difference, not the government (which is also composed of individuals).
Have a great Eid. :)

TGH said...

DDV says:

"Good evening ji
I read your blog today related to moon and Eid..must say it is really very professional ..but honestly speaking ..i realized that i dont know what Eid means...

Soooo firsly i need to understand that...then only i will hopefully understand the real meaninh of that unique crescent above my head....

Have a lovely evening"

TGH said...

Thanks, DDV, you've taken the first step towards a better understanding of Muslims and Islam. Thanks!

You see, after the month-long fasting, these Eid celebrations are to:

1) Thank God for allowing us to experience CONTROL over our eyes and stomachs.

2) Feel what the poor and the hungry feel and be considerate towards humans.

3) Thank God for again allowing us to go about normal eating and drinking of permitted foods (HALAL).

TGH said...

LATEST NEWS (18 August 2012):

The Moonsighiting Committee of Pakistan (Rooyat-e-Hilal: RHCP) is absolutely correct in declaring that the 'Shawwal crescent has NOT been sighted'--those who reported a sighting will be damned for their ignorance and lies.

TGH said...

The following countries have decided to start Shawwal from 19 August 2012 by either announcing crescent visibility or following the Saudi Arabia:

1) Australia
2) Fiji Islands
3) Indonesia
4) Newzealand
5) Saudi Arabia
6) South Africa
7) Sri Lanka
8) Great Britian
9) Zimbabwe

TGH said...

FK from Role-Pindy says (in private):

"I noticed you have 13 comments on your blog. What a lucky number! I found another article similar to yours, titled, 'In between Saudi and Iran the new moon got lost!'
I especially like the last 2 paragraphs."

Zulfiqar Ali said...

Nice work! Please post Eid al-Azha data for 2012. Thanks.

Tahir said...

Thanks for joining, Zulfiqar. Sure I will post something for you here!