Crescent Observation Predictions For Shawwal 1432 AH (2011 AD)

They will ask thee about the new moons. Say: "They indicate the periods for [various doings of] mankind, including the pilgrimage." (Qur’an 2:189)

Dear readers, Eid al-Fitr is around the corner. Please use the following data to observe this year’s Shawwal crescent at Lahore.

Consult the visibility curves for 29, 30, 31 August 2011 which will clearly define the geographical locations where the crescent may or may not be visible. Also carefully note the GREEN curves!

By checking things yourself, you will gain confidence in your observation, feel happy observing this ‘sunnah’ action of the last Messenger of Allah, and find out how accurate the Central Rooyat-e-Hilal Committee of Pakistan really is.

Location: Lahore, Pakistan

Expected temperature: 26 Celsius

Expected atmospheric pressure: 1003 hP

Conjunction (birth of new moon): 29 August 2011 at 08:04 LT (03:04 UTC)

Data for 29 August 2011

Best time to observe the crescent: 18:31 LT

Sunset: 18:31 LT

Moonset: 18:24 LT (the moon sets BEFORE the sun sets)

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): -00:07 minutes

Moon age: 10:27 hours

Moon altitude (height above horizon): -1.2 degrees (note the moon is BELOW the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 273.7 degrees

Moon’s distance from Earth: 361,991 Km

RESULT: The crescent will NOT be visible

Data for 30 August 2011

Best time to observe the crescent: 18:44 LT

Sunset: 18:29 LT

Moonset: 19:01 LT (the moon sets AFTER the sun sets)

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): 00:32 minutes

Moon age: 34:40 hours

Moon altitude (height above horizon): 3.9 degrees (above the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 263.6 degrees

Moon’s distance from Earth: 360,879 Km

RESULT: The crescent will be visible using an optical aid (or MAYBE visible with naked eyes)

Data for 31 August 2011

Best time to observe the crescent: 19:00 LT

Sunset: 18:28 LT

Moonset: 19:40 LT

Time lag (between sunset and moonset): 01:12 hours

Moon age: 58:56 hours

Moon altitude (height above horizon): 8.25 degrees

Azimuth (direction): 253.9 degrees

Moon’s distance from Earth: 361,431 Km

RESULT: The crescent will be EASILY visible

Please click this link to see how THIN a crescent less than 20 hours old really is:
http://www.icoproject.org/album20a.html 
Here is what a crescent that is between 20 and 24 hours old looks like:
http://www.icoproject.org/album20-24a.html 
And now a crescent that is more than 30 hours old (COMPARE all three links):
http://www.icoproject.org/album30a.html

Data for Karachi (30 August 2011):

Best time to observe the crescent: 19:11 LT

Sunset: 18:53 LT

Moonset: 19:33 LT

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): 00:41 minutes

Moon altitude (height above horizon): 5.1 degrees (above the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 263.7 degrees

RESULT: The crescent will be EASILY visible 

Data for Peshawar (30 August 2011):

Best time to observe the crescent: 18:44 LT

Sunset: 18:56 LT

Moonset: 19:12 LT

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): 00:29 minutes

Moon altitude (height above horizon): 3.4 degrees (above the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 263.5 degrees

Moon’s distance from Earth: 360,879 Km

RESULT: The crescent will be visible using an optical aid (or MAYBE visible with naked eyes)

Analysis
Notice how the latitude of three cities of Pakistan effects the crescent's location above the horizon. Hence, the chances of observation at Karachi is far greater than that at Peshawar:
Peshawar: crescent at 3.4 degrees
Lahore: crescent at 3.9 degrees
Karachi: cresccent at 5.1 degree

LATEST UPDATE
A mosque's imam from Peshwar has announced that 'witnesses have reported seeing the Shawwal crescent on the evening of 29 August 2011'. The Imam claims he 'is not part of the official crescent-sighting committee', has produced no authentic proof (picture, video or sighting data) and is out to create a schism amongst Muslims.

Instead of admitting that he is unnaturally sympathetic towards the Saudi decision and wishes to celebrate Eid on the 30 August, the Imam has lied all the way! May Allah deal with such violators and such fake men of faith.

Data for Peshawar (29 August 2011):

Sunset: 18:44 LT

Moonset: 18:36 LT

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): -00:08 minutes (the moon sets AFTER the sun sets)

Moon altitude (height above horizon): -1.5 degrees (notice, BELOW the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 274 degrees

RESULT: The crescent will be NOT be visible

Note:

I gratefully acknowledge the help of Mr Muhammad Odeh (www.icoproject.com/) and Dr Khalid Shaukat (http://www.moonsighting.com/) in learning so many things about the moon. I have used their knowledge and predictive lunar observationarticles relating to lunar observations.

©Tahir Gul Hasan, 2011