Crescent Observation Predictions For Shawwal 1432 AH (2011 AD)

They will ask thee about the new moons. Say: "They indicate the periods for [various doings of] mankind, including the pilgrimage." (Qur’an 2:189)

Dear readers, Eid al-Fitr is around the corner. Please use the following data to observe this year’s Shawwal crescent at Lahore.

Consult the visibility curves for 29, 30, 31 August 2011 which will clearly define the geographical locations where the crescent may or may not be visible. Also carefully note the GREEN curves!

By checking things yourself, you will gain confidence in your observation, feel happy observing this ‘sunnah’ action of the last Messenger of Allah, and find out how accurate the Central Rooyat-e-Hilal Committee of Pakistan really is.

Location: Lahore, Pakistan

Expected temperature: 26 Celsius

Expected atmospheric pressure: 1003 hP

Conjunction (birth of new moon): 29 August 2011 at 08:04 LT (03:04 UTC)

Data for 29 August 2011

Best time to observe the crescent: 18:31 LT

Sunset: 18:31 LT

Moonset: 18:24 LT (the moon sets BEFORE the sun sets)

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): -00:07 minutes

Moon age: 10:27 hours

Moon altitude (height above horizon): -1.2 degrees (note the moon is BELOW the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 273.7 degrees

Moon’s distance from Earth: 361,991 Km

RESULT: The crescent will NOT be visible

Data for 30 August 2011

Best time to observe the crescent: 18:44 LT

Sunset: 18:29 LT

Moonset: 19:01 LT (the moon sets AFTER the sun sets)

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): 00:32 minutes

Moon age: 34:40 hours

Moon altitude (height above horizon): 3.9 degrees (above the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 263.6 degrees

Moon’s distance from Earth: 360,879 Km

RESULT: The crescent will be visible using an optical aid (or MAYBE visible with naked eyes)

Data for 31 August 2011

Best time to observe the crescent: 19:00 LT

Sunset: 18:28 LT

Moonset: 19:40 LT

Time lag (between sunset and moonset): 01:12 hours

Moon age: 58:56 hours

Moon altitude (height above horizon): 8.25 degrees

Azimuth (direction): 253.9 degrees

Moon’s distance from Earth: 361,431 Km

RESULT: The crescent will be EASILY visible

Please click this link to see how THIN a crescent less than 20 hours old really is:
http://www.icoproject.org/album20a.html 
Here is what a crescent that is between 20 and 24 hours old looks like:
http://www.icoproject.org/album20-24a.html 
And now a crescent that is more than 30 hours old (COMPARE all three links):
http://www.icoproject.org/album30a.html

Data for Karachi (30 August 2011):

Best time to observe the crescent: 19:11 LT

Sunset: 18:53 LT

Moonset: 19:33 LT

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): 00:41 minutes

Moon altitude (height above horizon): 5.1 degrees (above the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 263.7 degrees

RESULT: The crescent will be EASILY visible 

Data for Peshawar (30 August 2011):

Best time to observe the crescent: 18:44 LT

Sunset: 18:56 LT

Moonset: 19:12 LT

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): 00:29 minutes

Moon altitude (height above horizon): 3.4 degrees (above the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 263.5 degrees

Moon’s distance from Earth: 360,879 Km

RESULT: The crescent will be visible using an optical aid (or MAYBE visible with naked eyes)

Analysis
Notice how the latitude of three cities of Pakistan effects the crescent's location above the horizon. Hence, the chances of observation at Karachi is far greater than that at Peshawar:
Peshawar: crescent at 3.4 degrees
Lahore: crescent at 3.9 degrees
Karachi: cresccent at 5.1 degree

LATEST UPDATE
A mosque's imam from Peshwar has announced that 'witnesses have reported seeing the Shawwal crescent on the evening of 29 August 2011'. The Imam claims he 'is not part of the official crescent-sighting committee', has produced no authentic proof (picture, video or sighting data) and is out to create a schism amongst Muslims.

Instead of admitting that he is unnaturally sympathetic towards the Saudi decision and wishes to celebrate Eid on the 30 August, the Imam has lied all the way! May Allah deal with such violators and such fake men of faith.

Data for Peshawar (29 August 2011):

Sunset: 18:44 LT

Moonset: 18:36 LT

Time lag: (between sunset and moonset): -00:08 minutes (the moon sets AFTER the sun sets)

Moon altitude (height above horizon): -1.5 degrees (notice, BELOW the horizon)

Azimuth (direction): 274 degrees

RESULT: The crescent will be NOT be visible

Note:

I gratefully acknowledge the help of Mr Muhammad Odeh (www.icoproject.com/) and Dr Khalid Shaukat (http://www.moonsighting.com/) in learning so many things about the moon. I have used their knowledge and predictive lunar observationarticles relating to lunar observations.

©Tahir Gul Hasan, 2011

Crescent Observation Predictions For Ramadan 1432 AH (2011 AD)

Due to time constraints, I am unable to complete this article but please allow me to present the data (for Lahore, Pakistan) and two predictive pictures of the globe that might enable you to spot the crescent of 1432 Hijrah.

The predictive software that I use is quite precise (Accurate Times) in helping one look in the correct direction (azimuth) and height above the horizon (altitude of a celestial body).

But first, let us look at this interesting illustration of what various moon phases look like.

Data for 31 July 2011, Lahore:

Conjunction Time (birth of the new moon): 30 July 2011 at 23:40 PST

Moon Age: +19H 20M (even a 19 hours old crescent may not be visible)

Moon Altitude: +03°:02':25" (quite low on the horizon)

Moon Azimuth: +281°:13':06"

Moon Lag Time: +00H 14M (note 'very short time' between sunset and moonset)

PREDICTION: The crescent is NOT visible even with an optical aid.

Please click this link to see how THIN a crescent less than 20 hours old really is:
http://www.icoproject.org/album20a.html
Here is what a crescent that is between 20 and 24 hours old looks like:
http://www.icoproject.org/album20-24a.html 
And now a crescent that is more than 30 hours old (COMPARE all three links)
http://www.icoproject.org/album30a.html

Data for 01 August 2011, Lahore:

Moon Age: +43H 19M (although quite old, it could only be seen after sunset)

Moon Altitude: +11°:05':06" (comfortable to look at)

Moon Azimuth: +270°:02':52"

Moon Lag Time: +00H 53M (note 'sufficient time' between sunset and moonset)

PREDICTION: The crescent is EASILY VISIBLE by naked eye.

As for the two pictures below (31 July and 01 August 2011), please note the legend in the bottom right hand side to see who will be able to see the crescent in which country.

As shown in the first picture, observing the crescent on 31 July 2011 is impossible in our region but will be possible on 01 August 2011. Therefore, unless Allah wills it otherwise, Ramadan of 1432 Hijrah will commence from 02 August 2011.

 

 

The diagram on the right depicts the phases of the moon as seen from the Earth.

With Eid around the corner I will return to this space with more useful information regarding lunar astronomy, especially with reference to problems relating to Islamic crescent observation methods.

Best wishes for the coming month of Ramadan.

©2011 Tahir Gul Hasan